Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil
This article analyzes the Brazilian fiscal policy between January/2003 and December/2018, seeking to fit it into one of four classic characteristics: tax-spend, spend-tax, fiscal synchronization and fiscal neutrality, in addition to analyzing the country´s revenues and expenditures, and asymmetries...
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oai:oai.revistas.uns.edu.ar:article-27582023-03-09T22:07:27Z Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil Assimetrias e causalidades entre receitas de despesas públicas no Brasil Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo Gomes da Silva, Cleomar Política fiscal NARDL Multiplicadores dinâmicos Modelo de regressão. Política Fiscal Econometira Series de Tempo NARDL Fiscal policy NARDL Dynamic multipliers Regressive model. Fiscal Policy Time Series Econometric NARDL This article analyzes the Brazilian fiscal policy between January/2003 and December/2018, seeking to fit it into one of four classic characteristics: tax-spend, spend-tax, fiscal synchronization and fiscal neutrality, in addition to analyzing the country´s revenues and expenditures, and asymmetries and causalities. By using Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models with cointegration, the results show cointegration between total revenues and expenses, also disaggregated into mandatory and discretionary expenses. Also, fiscal policy in Brazil is a “spend-tax” type, for the relationship between revenues, total and mandatory expenditures, and “tax-spend” for the relationship revenues-discretionary expenditures. Asymmetry is found in the relationship between total and mandatory expenditures, which grow together with GDP and revenue growth, but do not fall in recessions. Decreases in revenues lead to reductions in discretionary expenditures, which works by adjusting the short run budget, making long-run fiscal balance viable. Este artigo analisa a política fiscal brasileira de janeiro/2003 a dezembro/2018, buscando enquadrá-la numa das taxonomias (arrecadar gastar, gastar-arrecadar, sincronização fiscal, neutralidade fiscal), além de examinar suas receitas e despesas e possíveis relações assimétricas e causalidades. Os Modelos Não Lineares Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas com cointegração mostram que receitas e despesas totais, também desagregadas em obrigatórias e discricionárias, cointegram. Ademais, a política fiscal brasileira é do tipo “gastar-arrecadar”, na relação receitas-despesas totais e obrigatórias, e “arrecadar-gastar”, na relação receitasdespesas discricionárias. Há assimetria entre despesas totais e obrigatórias, que crescem acompanhando PIB e receitas, mas não caem na recessão. Quedas da arrecadação geram redução de gasto discricionário, que ajusta o orçamento no curto prazo e viabiliza o equilíbrio fiscal de longo prazo. EdiUNS 2022-12-28 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf https://revistas.uns.edu.ar/ee/article/view/2758 10.52292/j.estudecon.2023.2758 Estudios económicos; Vol. 40 No. 80 (2023); 191-221 Estudios económicos; Vol. 40 Núm. 80 (2023); 191-221 Estudios económicos; v. 40 n. 80 (2023); 191-221 2525-1295 0425-368X por https://revistas.uns.edu.ar/ee/article/view/2758/2119 Derechos de autor 2022 Atribución-No Comercial 4.0 Unported (CC BY-NC 4.0) de Creative Commons. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
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Biblioteca Central Biblioteca de Economía |
bda_str |
Estudios Económicos |
hierarchy_parent_id |
bda_ee |
hierarchy_parent_title |
Estudios Económicos |
hierarchy_top_id |
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Biblioteca Digital Académica |
first_indexed |
2018-08-22T17:39:27Z |
last_indexed |
2018-08-22T17:39:27Z |
language |
por |
format |
Online |
author |
Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo Gomes da Silva, Cleomar |
spellingShingle |
Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo Gomes da Silva, Cleomar Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil |
author_facet |
Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo Gomes da Silva, Cleomar |
author_sort |
Salomão Neto, Benito Adelmo |
title |
Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil |
title_short |
Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil |
title_full |
Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil |
title_sort |
asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in brazil |
topic_facet |
Política fiscal NARDL Multiplicadores dinâmicos Modelo de regressão. Política Fiscal Econometira Series de Tempo NARDL Fiscal policy NARDL Dynamic multipliers Regressive model. Fiscal Policy Time Series Econometric NARDL |
description |
This article analyzes the Brazilian fiscal policy between January/2003 and December/2018, seeking to fit it into one of four classic characteristics: tax-spend, spend-tax, fiscal synchronization and fiscal neutrality, in addition to analyzing the country´s revenues and expenditures, and asymmetries and causalities. By using Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models with cointegration, the results show cointegration between total revenues and expenses, also disaggregated into mandatory and discretionary expenses. Also, fiscal policy in Brazil is a “spend-tax” type, for the relationship between revenues, total and mandatory expenditures, and “tax-spend” for the relationship revenues-discretionary expenditures. Asymmetry is found in the relationship between total and mandatory expenditures, which grow together with GDP and revenue growth, but do not fall in recessions. Decreases in revenues lead to reductions in discretionary expenditures, which works by adjusting the short run budget, making long-run fiscal balance viable. |
publisher |
EdiUNS |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://revistas.uns.edu.ar/ee/article/view/2758 |
_version_ |
1760274141458464768 |
score |
12,614403 |